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How to Handle the 2002 Football Season
The Fatman Rocks
by Ernie Kaufman

At the moment the final whistle is blown for the Super Bowl I start counting the days until the next football season is upon us. Sounds funny; but it’s not. We are usually dealing with about 200 days, and it actually takes about twelve lifetimes. There is an empty pit in my stomach, a void in my life, and about thirty very boring weekends to deal with. I do love my football; in many forms. Whether I am watching it, listening to it, actually going to the games, betting on it, or involving myself in a myriad of different types of office football pools. Football is my passion! Now, having said that, what can I tell you to further enhance your chances of making money in the coming football season? Those of you who have been reading my articles for the past twenty-five years know that I am a big trend guy. Simply stated, I‘m looking to bet on situations that have been winning money. Here are three goodies:

Trend 1:The Under 10 Aggression Hypothesis
This system calls for a wager on any team that scores 10 or less points in any regular season game when they are the home team underdog in their very next game. Let’s theorize why this wager has done so well in recent years. A team will experience frustration and anger when they can’t score in a game. These emotions are then constructively generated in their next home game, which is an advantage in itself. Our low scoring team tends to take out their frustration by playing more aggressively at home. The past performance record of the Under 10 Aggression Hypothesis is really quite remarkable. In the last thirty-two football seasons (1970–2001) the result is 304 wins and 218 losses!

Trend 2:20 Points or Less
Here we are looking for any pro football team that has scored 20 points or less per game for three consecutive games. The wager is that this team will cover the pointspread in their fourth game. Before examining this wager’s effectiveness, let’s theorize why this situation occurs. All NFL teams are capable of some high–scoring games. It is rare for a team not to have a high-scoring game over an extended period of time. The definition of high-scoring, in this case, would be three or more touchdowns, which usually translates to 21 or more points. If any team plays three consecutive games without achieving a total of 21 or more points in one of those games, then that team becomes due for a high scoring game. A high-scoring game results in a strong tendency for a team to cover the pointspread. For the last twenty-three pro football seasons (through 2001), the 20 or Less system had 363 winners and 295 losers.

Trend 3:The Fourth 90 Theory
This is another solid play that closely resembles the 20 Points or Less. Look for teams that have scored a total of 90 points or more during any three consecutive games periods.

What happens here is the opposite of what happens in the 20 Points or Less theory. The team is due for a low-scoring game. The play is to wager against any team that collectively scores a total of 90 or more points in three consecutive games. The results of this system are another mind boggler! Teams who have a Fourth 90 have won 232 times and lost 313 times by the Las Vegas pointspread. That means that the sports wagerer who wagers against the Fourth 90 teams won 313 bets and lost 232 bets on this play since the 1973 football season.

There you have it: three of the finest wagering situations available in sports handicapping. Want some more? Write me.

Please contact Ernie at: P.O. Box 534, Redondo Beach, CA 90277

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