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Dice Control: Calculate the Player Advantage
Advantage Player
by Jerry Patterson

A young engineer who called himself “Sharpshooter” came to my attention in one of my blackjack update seminars.

He had been doing research on dice control for a number of years and explained it like this:

“If you could simply set the dice on the desired result without having to throw them, you have controlled the dice 100%. If you could set the dice and just slide them a few feet carefully down a Teflon surface, you would have the desired result, maybe 90% of the time. Now envision the dice being lightly tossed through the air into a sandbox. As they land, they sink into the sand slightly and do not bounce. Under these circumstances, the dice can be controlled about 70% of the time.”

We both agreed that in the real world of casino play, you must take into account the table surface that the dice must bounce and tumble over and the back wall with its diamond-like protrusions the casino requires you to hit. So gaining an advantage is no slam-dunk, but by learning how to set the dice, to grip and throw the dice, you can, by repetitive practice, attain a measurable and substantial advantage over the house. Sharpshooter and I have since gone on to form a successful partnership to continue our research and to organize and manage craps teams. Our dice control methodology is introduced in a book we co-authored called Casino Gambling: A Winner’s Guide to Blackjack, Craps, Roulette, Baccarat and Casino Poker, so what you are reading here is not just fuzzy theory. It has been time-tested under the fire of casino play for over five years. Sharpshooter’s formula for calculating the advantage of a skilled rhythm roller is as follows:

Now let’s plug in some numbers to compute the Player Advantage for the 6 and 8 place bets assuming the skilled player throws 6 sevens every 48 rolls instead of the 8 sevens which is random:

(7/6 – 6/7) x 7/13 x 100% = 16.67%

Where:
7/6 = the actual casino payoff for the 6 and 8 place bets;
6/7 = the correct payoff; and
7/13 = the probability of outcome or frequency of occurrence.

To understand the above calculation, you need to look at a new frequency distribution of 48 rolls instead of the standard 36. In this 48-roll sample, we are assuming that the skilled rhythm roller only throws the 7 six times (instead of the random eight times), while the 6 and 8 are each thrown seven times. Therefore, the correct house payoff for this altered game should only be $6 for each $7 bet instead of $7 for each $6 bet. This is because the player now holds the advantage, not the casino. The probability of outcome of either the 6 or the 8 is 7/13 (i.e., throwing the 6 or the 8 before the losing 7 shows). To understand the 7/13, note that you have seven chances of throwing the 6 or 8 in 48 rolls, but only six chances of throwing the 7 in 48 rolls, thus the probability of outcome is 7 divided by 7+6, or 7/13.

Can you achieve this 1:8 sevens-to-rolls ratio and 16% player advantage? Only by understanding and practicing the dice set, grip, and throw. I’ll go into more detail on this subject in the next issue of Gambling Times.

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